College Football Playoff projections after Week 5: Ranking the chances for each contender

Publish date: 2024-06-03

Read The Athletic’s latest College Football Playoff projections

The first full month of the college football season is in the books and the number of contenders is starting to get trimmed up. There are still a lot of teams with a respectable chance to make it to the College Football Playoff and this weekend’s games should make things a bit clearer.

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My projection model gives 12 teams more than a 1 percent chance to win the national title and 16 teams a more than 1 percent chance of making the CFP. Two teams, the LSU Tigers and the Utah Utes, lost last week to drop from the group of contenders. The Kansas Jayhawks had a 1.7 percent chance of making the CFP before going to Austin, but those chances have evaporated with a lopsided loss.

Here’s how the model works: I have developed a season simulator that produces odds for winning the national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles. After every simulation is complete, I have developed a model that selects playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and very similar, in my opinion, to the committee’s selection process in that it creates a “resume strength rating,” derived from prior resume strength ratings, past playoff rankings and playoff selections for each season.

Here’s how the top 25 national title contenders rank after Week 5, according to my model.

Projected college football national title chances

teamtitleplayoffs

29.3%

69.9%

15.2%

49.0%

10.5%

48.8%

9.7%

36.0%

6.4%

35.4%

6.3%

32.0%

4.6%

26.5%

4.1%

22.2%

3.9%

17.7%

3.7%

14.7%

2.0%

11.6%

1.4%

11.7%

0.8%

4.7%

0.7%

7.9%

0.2%

1.9%

0.2%

0.8%

0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

1.5%

0.1%

0.5%

0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

OU-Texas has big stakes

Oklahoma and Texas meet in the Red River Rivalry for the 119th time and the stakes couldn’t be much higher. Both teams come in undefeated for the first time since 2011 and with playoff aspirations. Texas is currently third-mostly likely in my simulations (48.8 percent) to make the College Football Playoff; Oklahoma is seventh (26.5%). My model currently rates Texas as the better team and the betting markets agree. Texas is currently projected to win about 70 percent of the time. A win by either school will put it firmly in the CFP conversation with no other Big 12 team in the class of these two.

Pac-12 hierarchy

Is the Pac-12 the nation’s best conference in its final year of existence? My simulations have five Pac-12 teams in the top 25 of most likely teams to make the CFP and that’s not counting Utah and UCLA, which already suffered losses but are quality teams as well. But which team is the best? Washington has the best playoff odds per my simulations, with USC and Oregon following behind. I’m a little surprised to see Oregon behind USC here, but USC rates as my model’s top offense and it’s hard to argue against reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Either way, Washington and Oregon meet in Seattle in two weeks, and the other two matchups will happen in November. There is a lot of time for the best team to come out on top, and it might not be one of those three. That’s how good the conference is top to bottom.

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How many contenders are there?

We are down to 16 teams with more than a 1 percent chance to make the CFP. There are a whole lot of games to be played between those 15 teams this season. Some natural selection will occur but with no clear No. 1 team — it’s still Georgia, in my opinion — the next two months of college football should be spectacular. The craziest stat from those 16 teams is that the SEC doesn’t have the most teams included. The Big Ten and ACC have four and the Pac-12 has three and then the Big 12 and SEC have two each. Is the SEC no longer the nation’s top conference?

(Photo of JJ McCarthy: Steven Branscombe / Getty Images)

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